Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
