Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
